In a new Nature study, led by the University of Oxford’s Department of Physics and published today, an international group of authors who developed the science behind net zero demonstrate that relying on “natural carbon sinks” like forests and oceans to offset ongoing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use will not actually stop global warming.
University of Victoria climate scientist, Andrew Weaver, is a co-author of the study. He can speak to the following points:
- stabilizing global mean temperature at any level requires net zero anthropogenic emissions
- relying on natural carbon sinks like forests and oceans to offset ongoing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use will not actually stop global warming
- “net zero” must be interpreted as “geological net zero” wherein each ton of carbon dioxide emissions released to the atmosphere through fossil fuel combustion is balanced by a ton of atmospheric carbon dioxide sequestered in geological storage
- governments and corporations are increasingly seeking carbon offset credit for the preservation of natural carbon sinks. Protection of natural (so called passive) sinks cannot be used to offset ongoing fossil fuel emissions if net zero is to halt warming
Weaver is an international leader in climate modelling and analysis. He was a lead author of multiple International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments and former editor-in-chief of the Journal of Climate. As a climate scientist, former politician and one of the key architects of BC’s CleanBC climate-change economic strategy, Weaver can discuss many aspects of the federal government’s plan to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, as well as broader topics concerning the socio-economic and political challenges and opportunities associated with implementing climate-change solutions.
Read the Nature journal Geological net zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks.
